The global pathway below, represented as a spatial animation (showing the location of production) and a bar chart (showing a global summary of production over time), represents the “middle” scenario in our matrix of nine (global demand evolving to 200, 250, and 300 kg per capita (it’s 222 today), and access to 100, 200 and 300 km of CO₂ transport to geological disposal. A 25-year furnace relining schedule was assumed. Recycled steel making, which normally occurs in electric arc furnaces but can supplement BF-BOFs by 30%, roughly triples from 2020 through 2050.  DRI steel making, both with CCS and green hydrogen start replacing all new primary in the late 2020s, and with BF-BOFs with CCS eventually taking about 10% of the market. You’ll notice a topmost blue layer, and that is about 200 Mt/yr of green steel demand that cannot be met from existing sites (“Non spatially allocated production”), and new sites need to be built where the resources, economics, and politics best align, and could be domestic or foreign to the demand.